My book project, Pledging Allegiance to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State explores two primary questions. First, why do armed groups rhetorically cooperate with other organizations? Second, how does rhetorical cooperation affect organizational tactics and alliance durability? To answer these questions, I analyze the behavior of 161 jihadist groups operating in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In doing so, I draw on internal organizational documents, Arabic-language primary sources, and original data on jihadist groups' tactics and oaths of allegiance to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. In addition to this project, I have a number of articles at different stages in the review process.
1. "Beyond Outbidding: How Transnational Jihadists Reshape Competitive Violent Markets," with Ilayda Onder (revise and resubmit at Journal of Conflict Research)
Abstract: Numerous jihadist organizations competing with local armed groups for resources in conflicts around the world have pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda (AQ) or the Islamic State (IS). How do transnational jihadist rivals (AQ/IS affiliates) shape the behavior of local groups? Scholars argue that increased competition in violent political markets encourages armed groups to escalate violence against civilians to distinguish their ``brand.'' However, existing research has largely overlooked how the type of actor involved in conflicts, rather than the quantity of groups, shapes competitive dynamics. We argue that transnational jihadists, with their legacy of brutality and high levels of international scrutiny, reshape militant competition, making escalatory violence ineffective and counterproductive for local groups seeking brand differentiation. Instead, we propose a theory of restrained competition, where local groups moderate civilian harm to distinguish themselves, thereby bolstering their local support and international appeal. We posit that this reputational calculus intensifies when groups maintain a greater ideological distance from transnational jihadists and have credible prospects to improve their international standing through restrained behavior. Using original data on pledges to AQ and IS, and leveraging their sudden emergence as a quasi-experimental treatment, we apply a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis. Aligning with our restrained competition theory, we find that armed groups--particularly those with non-religious ideologies and that are not designated as terrorist organizations by the United States--reduce violence against civilians in response to transnational jihadist competitors. Our findings challenge assumptions about escalation in fragmented conflicts, offering new insights into armed group behavior.
2. "Leadership Succession and Militant Extra-Lethal Violence," with Ilayda Onder and Joshua Fawcett Weiner (under review)
Why do armed groups use extreme forms of violence such as beheadings, despite their significant costs? This study argues that leadership transitions create authority crises that incentivize successors to adopt extra-lethal violence as a tool of internal consolidation and external signaling. These pressures are particularly acute for successors with prior leadership experience in other armed groups: having previously lost power, these leaders face additional reputational deficits and are especially likely to view extra-lethal violence as a useful instrument of authority consolidation. Drawing on an original dataset of 206 leaders from 108 jihadist groups active between 1976 and 2023, we find that organizations are significantly more likely to use beheadings under successor leaders than under founders. This effect is most pronounced among those with prior rebel leadership experience. We also find that these patterns are more consistent with successors' strategic use of beheadings to address short-term authority deficits than with alternative explanations such as ideological extremism, technical skill, transnational network ties, or unsanctioned violence by subordinates. By shifting attention from organizational incentives to leader-level dynamics, this study contributes to research on militant leadership, succession in armed groups, and the strategic logic of extra-lethal violence.
3. "Authorship Patterns in Jihadism Research," with Sedef Topal (under review)
Abstract: Thousands of publications have been written on jihadism over recent decades. However, despite the significant amount of scholarship devoted to studying individuals and organizations associated with the jihadist movement, few studies have taken stock of developments in this area of research. This article reviews trends in scholarship surrounding jihadist actors by focusing on authorship patterns. To do so, we collected 1,211 research articles published in 16 high-ranking journals between 2010 and 2023, constituting one of the largest data collection efforts to date on jihadism research. From this database of articles, we systematically gathered information on various data points related to authorship dynamics. The results highlight that jihadism research has continued to grow over time, with authors based in 63 different countries publishing articles on jihadist actors. The findings also showcase high rates of publications from one-time contributors, gender disparities among authors, the dominance of researchers based at U.S. and European institutions, and low rates of collaboration among scholars working in different countries. Importantly, these dynamics exhibit noteworthy shifts over time and variation between the surveyed journals. This article contributes to discussions surrounding jihadism scholarship, authorship patterns in terrorism studies, and knowledge production in conflict research.
4. "Language Bias in Conflict Research? Reviewing Trends in Scholarship on Jihadist Actors, 2013-2023" (under review)
Abstract: To what extent does conflict research engage with non-English-language sources? Recent studies have highlighted the importance of language diversity and the consequences of excluding non-English-language materials from conflict studies. However, there is little information regarding the degree to which conflict research engages with sources published in languages other than English. Building on previous research, I analyzed 857 articles published on jihadist actors in 14 high-ranking conflict, security, and terrorism journals between 2013 and 2023. Examining the contents of each article, I searched through bibliographies, tens of thousands of footnotes, and data sections to identify the presence of non-English-language sources. The results from this original dataset showcase notable developments in scholars’ use of non-English-language sources over time as well as variation in the utilization of materials from different languages. Representing one of the largest surveys to date on research surrounding jihadist actors and language diversity in the conflict literature, these findings have implications for understanding data quality, empirical findings, and knowledge production in conflict research.
1. "Beyond Outbidding: How Transnational Jihadists Reshape Competitive Violent Markets," with Ilayda Onder (revise and resubmit at Journal of Conflict Research)
Abstract: Numerous jihadist organizations competing with local armed groups for resources in conflicts around the world have pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda (AQ) or the Islamic State (IS). How do transnational jihadist rivals (AQ/IS affiliates) shape the behavior of local groups? Scholars argue that increased competition in violent political markets encourages armed groups to escalate violence against civilians to distinguish their ``brand.'' However, existing research has largely overlooked how the type of actor involved in conflicts, rather than the quantity of groups, shapes competitive dynamics. We argue that transnational jihadists, with their legacy of brutality and high levels of international scrutiny, reshape militant competition, making escalatory violence ineffective and counterproductive for local groups seeking brand differentiation. Instead, we propose a theory of restrained competition, where local groups moderate civilian harm to distinguish themselves, thereby bolstering their local support and international appeal. We posit that this reputational calculus intensifies when groups maintain a greater ideological distance from transnational jihadists and have credible prospects to improve their international standing through restrained behavior. Using original data on pledges to AQ and IS, and leveraging their sudden emergence as a quasi-experimental treatment, we apply a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis. Aligning with our restrained competition theory, we find that armed groups--particularly those with non-religious ideologies and that are not designated as terrorist organizations by the United States--reduce violence against civilians in response to transnational jihadist competitors. Our findings challenge assumptions about escalation in fragmented conflicts, offering new insights into armed group behavior.
2. "Leadership Succession and Militant Extra-Lethal Violence," with Ilayda Onder and Joshua Fawcett Weiner (under review)
Why do armed groups use extreme forms of violence such as beheadings, despite their significant costs? This study argues that leadership transitions create authority crises that incentivize successors to adopt extra-lethal violence as a tool of internal consolidation and external signaling. These pressures are particularly acute for successors with prior leadership experience in other armed groups: having previously lost power, these leaders face additional reputational deficits and are especially likely to view extra-lethal violence as a useful instrument of authority consolidation. Drawing on an original dataset of 206 leaders from 108 jihadist groups active between 1976 and 2023, we find that organizations are significantly more likely to use beheadings under successor leaders than under founders. This effect is most pronounced among those with prior rebel leadership experience. We also find that these patterns are more consistent with successors' strategic use of beheadings to address short-term authority deficits than with alternative explanations such as ideological extremism, technical skill, transnational network ties, or unsanctioned violence by subordinates. By shifting attention from organizational incentives to leader-level dynamics, this study contributes to research on militant leadership, succession in armed groups, and the strategic logic of extra-lethal violence.
3. "Authorship Patterns in Jihadism Research," with Sedef Topal (under review)
Abstract: Thousands of publications have been written on jihadism over recent decades. However, despite the significant amount of scholarship devoted to studying individuals and organizations associated with the jihadist movement, few studies have taken stock of developments in this area of research. This article reviews trends in scholarship surrounding jihadist actors by focusing on authorship patterns. To do so, we collected 1,211 research articles published in 16 high-ranking journals between 2010 and 2023, constituting one of the largest data collection efforts to date on jihadism research. From this database of articles, we systematically gathered information on various data points related to authorship dynamics. The results highlight that jihadism research has continued to grow over time, with authors based in 63 different countries publishing articles on jihadist actors. The findings also showcase high rates of publications from one-time contributors, gender disparities among authors, the dominance of researchers based at U.S. and European institutions, and low rates of collaboration among scholars working in different countries. Importantly, these dynamics exhibit noteworthy shifts over time and variation between the surveyed journals. This article contributes to discussions surrounding jihadism scholarship, authorship patterns in terrorism studies, and knowledge production in conflict research.
4. "Language Bias in Conflict Research? Reviewing Trends in Scholarship on Jihadist Actors, 2013-2023" (under review)
Abstract: To what extent does conflict research engage with non-English-language sources? Recent studies have highlighted the importance of language diversity and the consequences of excluding non-English-language materials from conflict studies. However, there is little information regarding the degree to which conflict research engages with sources published in languages other than English. Building on previous research, I analyzed 857 articles published on jihadist actors in 14 high-ranking conflict, security, and terrorism journals between 2013 and 2023. Examining the contents of each article, I searched through bibliographies, tens of thousands of footnotes, and data sections to identify the presence of non-English-language sources. The results from this original dataset showcase notable developments in scholars’ use of non-English-language sources over time as well as variation in the utilization of materials from different languages. Representing one of the largest surveys to date on research surrounding jihadist actors and language diversity in the conflict literature, these findings have implications for understanding data quality, empirical findings, and knowledge production in conflict research.